DS-AI Seed Grants: The Ag-Response Model

Nitrogen pollution from agriculture in Minnesota ground and surface waters is a major issue having negative effects on resident wellbeing and the environment. The Minnesota Nutrient Reduction Strategy (NRS) from 2014 lays out goals for reducing nitrogen pollution and identifies key efforts that can help reach these goals. One of the primary targets is incentivizing the adoption of nitrogen best management practices (BMPs) in agriculture. However, over the last decade, the incentives have been insufficient to drive adoption of BMPs at levels that will reach the NRS goals.

Assistant Professor Nicholas Gallagher (Applied Economics) and colleagues Professor David Mulla (Soil, Water, and Climate; MSI PI), Emeritus Professor and Extension Economist William Lazarus (Applied Economics), David Wall, and graduate student Shunkei Kakimoto (Applied Economics) are working on a project to develop the Ag-Response Model, an integrated assessment model of crop production in Minnesota. The model will connect changes in markets and policies to crop production decisions and the adoption of nitrogen BMPs and estimate subsequent environmental outcomes. The model will be used to assess current and prospective policies for incentivizing the adoption of these practices among Minnesota farmers and provide recommendations for additional efforts needed to meet the NRS goals. 

This project received a DSI (now DSAI) Data Sets Seed Grant and was featured during the Seed Grant Showcase in February 2025. DSAI Seed Grant funds are intended to promote, catalyze, accelerate, and advance U of M-based data science research so that U of M faculty and staff are well prepared to compete for longer term external funding opportunities. Priority is given to projects that will enable or bridge applications to larger funding opportunities and/or create new cross-disciplinary or cross-system collaborations, and to those that align with at least one of the areas of the MnDRIVE initiative. Projects must align with one of the current DSI focus areas: Foundational Data Sciences, Digital Health and Personalized Health Care Delivery, or Agriculture and the Environment. This project falls under the Environment research area of the MnDRIVE initiative and the Agriculture and the Environment focus area.